he's hitting a report that people can relate to. they are not excited and crazy about congress right now and he knows it. he played it off very well, candy. >> and by the way, he was in the senate for a decade so he's got plenty of material. thanks, lisa. that is all from us tonight. erin burnett "outfront" starts right now. a standoff in the streets of hermus. erin asks the prime minister of the uae and the prime minister about iran arrested during an exclusive interview. and the bottom line of the gop campaign. we're just six days away from the iowa caucus. santorum is up.

gingrich is down. let's go outfront. good evening, i'm ali velshi sitting in for erin burnett "outfront" tonight. newt sinking and santorum rising. newt gingrich plunging from his top spot down to fourth place. former governor rick santorum doing just the open sits. he surged from single digits into third place. mitt romney now leads the pack with 25% and there's another new poll out of new hampshire where the nation's second contest in the race for the gop nominee will be held one week later on january the 10th. mitt romney dominating his opposition there. he's at 44%. rivals ron paul and newt gingrich trailing 17% and 16% respectively. let's go right to political correspondent joe johns. he's on the ground in iowa. joe, this is a bit of a shocker.

santorumizi santorumize santorum rising as much as he has. this is a guy that's been to every county in the state and he still couldn't get that endorsement. what has done that this for rick santorum? >> reporter: ali, i've got to tell you, a lot of people thought that santorum was underperforming in the state of the polls for a long time. he's been to every county. he's spent more time here than i think any other candidate has been running for president. he also talks and speaks to the issues that so many he have january v evangelicals and socialists in the state concern themselves with. so it's probably not surprising that rick santorum at last was going to get his day in the sun here in iowa, if you will. it's a huge jump going from 5% in one poll all the way up to 16% in another poll which really suggests that of all these

candidates and the way that the polls have gone up and down, rick santorum may be surging at exactly the right time for a guy running for president, ali. >> it's still a game of small numbers, though. 43% of iowans polled said that they could change their mind. which means, is santorum gaining from the undecided? he is soaring from newt gingrich's losses? that's a number better than anyone is polling right now. >> reporter: right. and if you think of the arc of the iowa race, again and again and again you've seen conservatives going up and then go down as people look at their baggage, electability, their background, their personal histories. rick santorum is a guy who basically hasn't gotten his shot yet. okay. so who's the big loser here? it's pretty clear that newt gingrich has just sunk pretty dramatically in the polls.

no doubt that has at least a little bit to do with the fact that he's just been attacked over and over again by mitt romney, by ron paul, by others. he's really been quite a target and a lot of people who watch the ads and watch the polls very carefully say the ads might have something to do with gingrich's drop in the polls. >> but we've seen every one of these candidates who has hit close to the top spot and they take that hit. this is something that has not happened to santorum or jon huntsman in this race. >> reporter: that's certainly true. it certainly hasn't happened to rick santorum are. i have to tell you, he's something of a known quantity. >> right. >> reporter: he's been quite a while in the united states senate. people know him pretty well and know his record. a lot of people have dug around trying to find skeletons in his

closet and i don't think they found a whole lot of them. jon huntsman hasn't spent a lot of time here in iowa at all. his moment likely to be in new hampshire. that is a place where mitt romney appears to be doing well. >> right. but romney is so dominating things in that state. joe, good discussion. we're going to be having a lot of them over the course of the next few days. joe johns and the best political team in television in iowa. let's go to john avalon and rich gaylon as well. he's a republican strategist. kiki, i feel bad for you. what have you got to contribute to this discussion? iowa is the hottest place for a democrat the last time around. john made a point -- i'm going to put it to you first, kiki, but john made a point where he said that the conservatives in iowa self-select in many cases in their participation in these caucuses and has an extra dose

of conservative. so santorum with a good showing here really bears very little relationship to the country. >> yeah. it's interesting. there are three or four things i would tell people to pay attention to over the next few days. the first is that i had the benefit of working for president richard gephart whereas a democrat he won the iowa caucuses. the other thing that's interesting to pay attention to is you don't hear a conversation about new participants the way that you did for barack obama in 2008. are there a lot of new people that are going to flood those church basements and school cafeterias? at the company where i work, the other thing that we've been paying attention to, the analytic team has been combing social media to see where that intensity is and they are really seeing it in the conversations about gingrich. >> yep. >> and the attacks on him and from the paul people. you don't see santorum with an online presence quite with the level of intensity that you do from ron paul's people. so take your polling, measure

that with a little bit of analytics and don't forget barack obama had tremendous intensity in social media and in the digital world last time. then the last thing i'd remind you that that bounce into new hampshire and buchanan and mike huckabee last time. and the final thing that i would say, this isn't necessarily about who wins and the numbers that day. it's who wins in the trend. >> all right. let me -- >> like bill clinton did in new hampshire. >> let me ask you this, kiki, i would send a thousand volunteers to help newt gingrich. because if romney walks away from this and in new hampshire where he has a commanding lead, this poses more problems for barack obama than were newt gingrich the lead. >> that's correct. i think kik ichlt said this earlier -- or you said earlier to joe, you have to be a little

careful when these sorts of shifts happen this dramatically, it may make you stop and wait. the final poll will be in sunday's paper. that means they will release it saturday night and we'll see if those numbers match up with these numbers. if you're the gingrich people you've got to say, oh, this is going to be tough. if i'm advising gingrich, which i'm not, let's waive new hampshire and camp out in south carolina and we will do battle with santorum in south carolina. winner goes on, loser goes home. >> it's interesting what kiki said about there's no magic of these independents. there's no magic in fiscal conservatives supporting romney. they actually like jon huntsman more but don't think he has a chance. there's no difference between social conservatives choosing between michele bachmann and santorum and figuring maybe

santorum's got the momentum. what about the 43% of those people that say they are going to caucus but don't have a choice? >> momentum can matter a great deal out. low turnout and high intensity elections and skew overwhelmingly. 80% of caucusgoers are conservatives. the surge for santorum, because the people looking for those conservative to romney, gingrich's numbers are cut in half now. the other thing that really strikes me is that mitt romney remains stuck at that glass ceiling of 25% and playing it out, whatever happens in the primaries and if the other candidates start coalessing, that's where things can get interesting. >> let me remind you, four years

ago the president won the iowa caucus with just under 38% of the vote. so 60 something% of eye want iowans wanted someone else but he got the hand. >> let me ask you this, kiki. he responded to newt gingrich's complaints about him about too many attack ads. listen to what romney said. >> you're going to get into a campaign like this, you've got to have broad shoulders and if you can't take on the negative that is part of a primary, you're surely not going to be able to handle the heat of barack obama. >> what do you think, kiki? sounds like he's staying above the fray? >> i don't think anybody attaches high levels of negativity from barack obama. but mitt romney said something that is interesting, and that is, when you see the level of negativity going on, which is not unnatural, but what you see

here demonstrates the level of vulnerability that all these of these candidates have. rick perry, nobody even talks about him except that he's changing his opinion on the issue of choice. by the way, why won't he put out his tax returns? what it's demonstrating is the litany of the political vulnerability which i think could come out in a political election. >> he didn't say he wouldn't do it. he say he may do it and if nobody else has put out their tax returns either, all things in their time. he didn't say he wouldn't do it. john kerry who never released his -- >> none of us are going to be all that surprised to fint find out that mitt romney is a very, very wealthy man. kiki, john, rich, thank you. still "outfront," a young

girl in indiana is murdered and dismembered by the man who was supposed to be baby sitting here. and the autopsy results of a family of five who died in a christmas day fire. what we learned about their final minutes. and a funeral marks the end of kim jong-il's rein. and kim jong-il's accomplishments. did he really invent the hamburger? we're going to take a look back.

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the funeral for kim jong-il was held today in pyongyang. the hurst made its way through and very heavy military presence. kim's son, there is he, the expected predecessor, kim jong-un, walked alongside the cascade be carried on top, not

inside. some question whether these cries are a product of true grief or whether they stem from a place of fear as uncertain future and uncertain future lies ahead for one of the world's most repressed societies. with me is a handful of people who knows a little bit about this. governor bill rich haardson has spent a lot of time in the country. governor richardson, thank you for being with us. >> nice to be with you. thank you. >> our reporter, paula hancock, the video has been provided by the north koreans. mourning and wailing the way that they are and the people in the distance who seemed to be onlookers, who seemed to be looking at the whole thing. in other words, was this outcry -- you've been there. are these people as devastated as they look that kim jong-il has passed? >> well, it's all very

choreographed. i think there is a lot of grief there. it's a funeral procession that is basically based on the personality. kim jong-un, the youngest son, is now the leader. that's the message that is being conveyed. the root of the funeral, the grabbed father of the country, then kim's father, and now i think what is interesting is leading the funeral procession is a signal that kim jong-un is now the leader. what was interesting is that the uncle was right behind him. >> right. >> he's now vice chair of the national commission. it shows that he's going to be a mentor, maybe kind of help guide kim jong-un in his early days. but now that the ceremony is over, the last funeral of the event, now you will see the consolidation of power by the

military through kim jong-un or you might see some disruption. but i think the odds are that kim jong-un for the next period of time will be anointed leader. >> well, this is one of those weird ka none drums where you know these repressive leaders are there and then when they are gone you have equal measure fear that they will be vacuum and lead to in-fighting and then hope that the new leader will be opened to the outside world. where do you think this falls? >> well, there is some good signs. the good sign is that the new leader, kim jong-un, did meet with south korean leaders, two women leaders that came to pay condolences. he was very proper. and, secondly, he did convey to them the need for south korea's investment in north korea. so he's already acting like a leader. those are initial good signs.

but what you want to watch in the next few days is north korean military leadership, the socialist worker party. those are the two entities that have the power in north korea. especially the military. but it looks like they are anointing kim jong-un, the young man. they are getting behind him. i think the message of the ceremony, the funeral, is unity, the call to personality continues and it's very, very, very closely, tightly held. so even somebody like myself who has been there eight times, you've got to watch these clues and the clues are that the young man is stepping into the most powerful position for now. >> we'll watch it very closely and hopefully you will help us interpret it as we get more signals. always a pleasure seeing you. >> thank you. when a leader dies, we put together a package celebrating the achievements of their life but it's been difficult to find

out what is fiction and real. keep in mind, some of these things might not be true.

>> double rainbow all the way across the sky. >> "outfront" next, erin's interview with the prime minister of the uae sheikh mohammed. and raising the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion, there's nothing funny about that. and america's new favorite comedian, arlen spector? when you have tough pain, do you want fast relief? try bayer advanced aspirin. it's not the bayer aspirin you know.

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the obama administration is asking on gres to raise the country's debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion. let's bring in cnn's kor spoon didn't dana bash. dana, this wasn't entirely unexpected. is the administration going to face the same obstacles that it saw this summer in getting it approved? >> ali, the answer is no. no doubt that it won't get approved because at the end of that debt debacle, fair to say it was a debt debacle, the debt ceiling will go up with no economic disruption and in a way that spares these politicians in both parties the political pain of voting for more spending in an election year and what the law says is that if the treasury department determines that the u.s. is within $100 billion of the debt limit, the president has to ask congress for a debt

increase. but here's the catch. congress only has to disapprove about that and has 15 days to do it. and guess what, congress is not here. >> despite the fact that this has been prearranged, to come degree, has there been a gop reaction to this request? because you would think that it would at least present an opportunity to be able to say, this is more of the same nonsense. >> exactly. and there are definitely a lot of republicans, despite the fact that this was scripted, that are not very happy about not having the opportunity to have this debate on the floor of the house and the senate to derail against spending. and they say they are not happy because this is kind of a power play by the president. he could have easily waited to make this request so that congress is in town but the obama administration knows full well that congress is not here. you may hear a demand from republicans for the senate democratic leader to call the senate back in for the house to do the same but i was told that that's unlikely. but this is campaign candy for those republicans out in iowa who are railing against

president obama as a liberal spender. >> it will be one more example that they will use. dana, thank you. >> you too, ali. disturbing details about the final moments of the family killed in a christmas day house fire. we have the autopsy results. then, iran's plan to block the world's most strategically important oil choke point, the street of hermuth. and erin's exclusive interview with the prime minister of the uae, sheikh mohammed. that's next. nyquil (stuffy): hey, tylenol. you know we're kinda like twins.

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the u.s. has a warning for iran, pretty simple, don't try it. iran is threatening to block tankers trying to pass through the strategically important choke points, the strait of hormuz. that as the u.s. navy issues its own warning to tehran. anyone threatens who disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community. to put a bigger perspective on the story, i want to bring in u.s. retired army james marks. what do you make of this statement? the saber rattling about the

strait of iran. >> the u.s. central command owns that piece of terrain, that piece of geography, as they say. and the u.s. fifth fleet has been headquartered in bahrain and knows the strait of hormuz intimately and that's what the navy does. very specifically, there's mission number one for them to ensure that 40% of the oil supply and demand that passes through the strait will continue uninterrupted. >> for folks who don't know, it's really a choke point. a lot of it gets loaded into ships and gets sent through that strait of hormuz that is small enough, narrow enough that it

could disrupt a ship. the u.s. is there, there's never been but the u.s. has always said that it is ready if there's an attempt at disruption. what would that look like? >> first, let's make sure that we're straight on the numbers. 90% of the oil produced in the region passes through the strait. >> so 16 to 17% of the world's oil passes through there. >> it's 40% of the world's oil. so without getting into numbers, it's a huge monster amount of oil. it absolutely would disrupt international markets instantaneously if it was blockaded. to the point of blockade versus disruption, iran can disrupt the flow going through the strait from the air or surface to surface missiles. they don't have the ability to establish a blockade. a blockade is extremely restrictive. >> right. >> it would require actions from the air, subsurface, surface lane of minds, subsurface mine activity, and every one of those

actions would be sur veiled and picked up by the united states intelligence community intan tan yously, meaning that the iranians would never get in a position to fully institute a blockade. >> could they set a tanker on fire? >> oh, sure. but you blow right by it and say, really unfortunate to be on that tanker while on fire. >> right. >> it's not going to disrupt the whole passage. it's 34 miles and two miles of passageway for inward and outward bound shipping. >> right. >> called a two-mile buffer zone. so there's plenty of room to get all of those tanks through. so to tet set it on fire would have a negligable effect. >> and everything has an effect on oil markets these days. >> in fact, ali, the fact that the iranians made the statemented the price of oil today. it's metered down a little bit but activities like that would affect the markets. >> but you don't think that

anything could happen that couldn't be brought down. >> always a pleasure talking to you. >> thanks, ali. the violence continues in the streets of bashar al assad. these people are taking cover during heavy gunfire. the fire fight coming on the same day that the head of the arab league team that says what the monitors have seen so far in mo homs, there was nothing scary about it. egypt is shown in disarray but there are few countries in the middle east which have escaped significant unrest in the arab spring and one of them is the united arab emirates. erin burnett has spent a lot of time in the middle east and in

the uae and recently she spent some time with the ruler of dubai. his name is sheikh mohammed. locals call his highness. >> reporter: a perfect december day to celebrate the 40th anniversary of one of the youngest countries in the world. this is the united arab emirates and the man who built its crowned jewel, dubai, is still at the helm. a dream of skyscrapers where 40 years ago there were literally sand do you knows, tents, and small efforts. now the world's tallest building rises from the desert. the center of the city. and the backdrop for the rich and famous, including tom cruise and his stunt move for the latest movie, "mission impossible" he dangled 153 stories in the air. this city is a haven for people seeking escape. judy is a student from syria. >> living here alone, i never

feel unsafe, uncomfortable of living here. >> reporter: even the ruler still walks without a security detail. dubai is diverse. 85% of the people who live here are and people from 200 countries pass through so far, though, there's been no suicide in the city. >> are you worried that extremists, someone would want to target with a terrorist act, women can wear bic kind knees in the middle east? >> that has not been a problem for us. they are living together and have an interest to come here so they work and sent home some money and they don't want to. >> reporter: he begins his day at his horse ranch about an hour from dubai. >> the horse and dog is part of our life. >> reporter: in the summer, it's about 120 degrees farenheit. but on a december day we visited, it was about 80.

perfect weather to watch emirati governing in action. it's called when they have a chance to directly petition for more land to liver transplants. >> anybody and everybody can come to their ruler and say, well, i didn't get that or that or this department or this ministry didn't give me my right. >> reporter: and they directly ask you? you didn't do this, or i want that and then you have to answer to the individual person? >> yes. and they would complain about that one ministry. >> reporter: he tells us he likes to sleep in the desert alone every ten days but he is a royal. and in a country sitting on 10% of the world's oil, that means transportation is a $20 million helicopter. the ride takes 25 minutes to abu dhabi. a city literally perched on top of the country's oil.

abu dhabi rakes in $9 million a month in cash. a crash that left some of the famous manmade islands empty. real estate prices are 26% lower than two years ago and one of two homes are empty. according to an expert, he has spent the last decade living and working in dubai. >> clearly they need support and they needed support in 2009 when abu dhabi bailed them out. even the name of the dubai named after the ruler of abu dhabi. the one we sat in on was about the budget which is now posted online. a move to transparency that resonates with some students in the midst of revolution, like egypt. an egyptian and senior at the american university of dubai. >> the emirates should be a role model for our country and the way it is ruled. >> reporter: but it's not that

simple. >> they have been the front-runner in terms of freedom of the press and relative to abu dhabi. it's far more open. but since 2008, 2009 crisis, we have seen some missteps. there's been a clamp down in the media. the transparency has been questionable. investors have wanted more access and more data that hasn't really been there. so they are concerned. >> people will say, the press isn't totally free. >> they don't see something wrong about a person they can't see anything they want. you know, and as i told you, we are not perfect. you know, we are still learning. >> do you think that democracy is a good thing? >> we have our own democracy. you cannot transport democracy to us. >> your son will rule after you. father to son, will that continue forever, do you think?

>> as long as the people want that. >> still, in the aftermath of the arab spring, some say dubai is using money to prevent unrest. >> salaries for government workers, you recently doubled that. >> yeah. >> and some say it's because you were worried about unrest in the uae from the arab spring. is there any truth in that? >> no. it's not because of the arab spring. we did it before the arab spring started and before that if you look at the last ten years, you will see we have done it a few times. >> reporter: whatever the motivation, and our many visits here, the young and most of the are pro government. >> i would like to thank his highness for what he has done for us, for everything. >> in one word, sheikh mohammed is a visionary. >> reporter: albeit with a vision of freedom that is different than the west.

here you can go to jail if you don't pay your mortgage. but sheikh is not embarrassed about his reputation. >> you don't put in jail everybody that comes here. >> reporter: sheikh mohammed is interest interested in one thing, 3wi8ding a city on a hill where the hills are few and far between. how much farther do you want to go? >> another issue that sheikh mohammed and erin talked about was iran. while it's often overlooked, iran generals own about 20% of their property. sheikh mohammed admitted to erin that u.s. sanctions on iran are not good for dubai but he also told her that he doesn't believe that due iran will create a nuclear weapon. digging deeper on syria, take a look at this video. it's life in syria. people throwing bread across the street. they can't walk across the street because of snipers.

a sniper that you hear actually shooting. you can't cross the street for fear of being shot. we're going to speak with a journalist who took this video. also tonight, keeping them honest, a man sent by the arab league to assess the violence in syria. we're going to speak about that. also tonight, the choreography, the funeral of the former dictator, a stunning seen in north korea. almost competitive grieving. how mourners fear punishment for not showing that they are sufficiently distraught. we're going to show you the most interesting moments. those stories. also, political turn of events in iowa. and tonight's "ridiculist" at the top of the hour. >> competing grieving, you put it right. anderson, we look forward to it. >> thanks, al snichlt a family

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autopsy results are in for the five family members killed in a tragic christmas day fire

in samford connecticut. lomer johnson died of head drama after falling through the roof rafter and johnson died of smoke inhalation as did his wife and three grandchildren. the children's mother, new york ad executive, madonna badger, and a friend, escaped. the fire was caused by embers placed in the back of the home. joining us is a reporter for our affiliate station wfsb. robert, thanks for joining us. the news today is the autopsy results. what else unfolded? the blunt-force trauma clearly from the fall and they've ruled out foul play? >> reporter: ali, yes, there is no foul play being investigated. sources telling us that the fact that even that they put these ashes in an area that didn't properly discard them does not rise to the negligent levels.

so they are not pursing that in any way. but there are still questions going on about whether they should have been in certain parts of that home. it was a $1.7 million home and there was a major section of it being renovated. so they were not allowed to be actually living in that space so they are looking into that and they are looking into a few other things, including whether the smoke detection system was enabled at that point. >> let me just ask you this. the house -- there was some issue about permits because there was construction being done on this house. that's what the concern was, right? >> reporter: exactly, yeah. they were allowed to be in the house and they were allowed to live in certain parts of it. it was a massive house. but the second floor was being completely renovated so right now they are trying to figure out if they were living in that section, if people were living in that section of the house and if so that was not a safe area to be sleeping and as part of the renovation, they were putting into this new smoke detection system and according to the building inspector at a major news conference, that was

not connected. they do not believe that it was connected but they are not able to be sure about that because the damage to the house was so significant. >> right. and they've already taken down the house because it was so unsafe. let me ask you this, have they n able to interview the mother and friend? >> they talked to her the morning after she came out of the house. you can imagine, she lost her family in one fell swoop. they were able to talk to her preliminarily. they are now able to get more information from her and her friend who is the one that was also doing all of the contract work on the house. he just was released from the hospital today. they haven't been able to do the follow-up interviews, they're giving her time to grieve. she lost her three young daughters and her own parents. >> robert, thanks very much for bringing us up to speed. such a tragic story. robert coulston.

the father of michelle parker is calling on police to wrap up the search for his daughter. he said police aren't looking hard enough in the right place. >> search lake connelly. i mean, that's where her phone was found. >> being the phone was in that vicinity, common sense makes you feel they should focus on searching there. >> police say finding michelle is their top priority. the mother of three disappeared a month ago, hours after appearing on the tv show the people's court with her ex-fiance, dale smith. he is currently the prime suspect in the case. a $30,000 reward is already helping in the search for a missing toddler, aa reynolds. the they have new leads. she was last seen when her father put her to bed in her home. the reward the largest offered for a missing person in maine. learning more today about the family friend that admitted to murdering and dismembering a

nine-year-old girl he was supposed to be baby-sitting. turns out he was wanted in florida for violating probation. florida department of corrections says he was charged with battery on a law enforcement officer, firefighter or ems worker, back in 2000. was sentenced to a year of supervision and ordered to take an anger management class. instead of serving his time, he disappeared. he now faces murder charges in indiana in the death of a girl and is held without bond. the indiana sheriff joins me on the phone. thanks very much for joining us. we know that piuma door confessed to striking her over the head with a brick, dismembering her body, storing some body parts in the freezer. what more have you learned? >> well, the concern now about the fact we have a trial coming up, can't say much more than what has been released from the probable hearing yesterday. formal charges will be read friday.

at that time more information will be forthcoming. we have to be concerned that we don't release that could jeopardize the trial. >> are you able to tell us about a motive? >> can't discuss motive or too much more than has been done. the investigation is continuing, is on-going. >> now, this man was watching she and her sisters. do you know where the sisters were at the time she was allegedly killed? >> can't really discuss that. we do have an idea where they were. you have to remember, this is a small home, a trailer home. we do know the siblings were there in the area. >> how is the family doing? >> the family seems to be dealing with this as anyone would expect them to. >> i guess, i mean, i don't know how you balance the sense of relief that you solve the case and found the suspect, but what a tragic end for this little girl. >> yes. it is a horrible emotional roller coaster, we had been searching since the 23rd for this little girl. as time marched on, hope began to wane that we would find her

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only at the sleep number store, where queen bed sets now start at just $899. a couple of comedians are in hot water over things they tweeted. the host of real time with bill maher, following a broncos loss to the bills christmas eve, he

tweeted this. wow, jesus just blanked tim tebow bad and on christmas eve. somewhere in hell satan is tebowing to hitler saying hey, buffalo's killing them. groups are angry and calling for a boycott of all hbo shows. maher is not the only comedian making people angry. denis leary offended islamic groups this week when his production company tweeted a link to this video. >> santa is converting to islam? i converted when i went to prison. >> a christmas spoof features charlie brown coping with doubts about christianity converting to islam. despite the fact it is from comedy central, a special seven years old, critics called it jaw droppingly islam phobic. they haven't apologized. we go from political come eed yans to politicians. arlin spector tried his hand at

standup using material he says he got from his political experience. he performed a mostly sex filled set at an open mic at philly. we can't show you most of the set. here are some of the more tv appropriate highlights. >> and this guy, arlin spector. >> congress tells a joke, it becomes a law. whenever congress passes a law, it turns out to be a joke. 65th birthday, i said bill, congratulations on 65. how do you feel? he said i feel like a teenager, but problem is i can't find one. herman cain